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As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.

As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."

Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.

Japan's Nikkei Index, the weighted average of 225 stocks in major companies, fell for the 10th day. That has not happened since 1965.

According to the FT, "Rising fears about the impact of inflation on slowing economies took their toll on Japanese and other Asia-Pacific markets." That sounds a bit like the current trouble in the US.

A number of other indicies have had sharp declines lately. The Shanghai Composite has fallen by more than half since late last year. Rising energy and food costs in China have not helped it. Neither have concerns that a recession in the West could cut demand for its exports.

The Nikkei news says two things. The first is that the economies in other large nations may be as troubled as that in the US. Traders often look out several quarters when they make their buying or selling decisions. But, the second, more ominous sign from the Nikkei's decline is that it says that the smart money in Japan believes that the price of oil is not likely to fall. Japan is relies more on imports of crude that the US does.

The tough run for the Nikkei is not restricted to Japan. US and EU markets are likely to set records of their own, and not the kind that traders look forward to.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than General Electric (NYSE: GE).

I've been talking about GE a lot lately, but if you're an investor, you know there's a lot to talk about this conglomerate. No, I don't mean fundamentally, necessarily, I mean that its current yield is simply amazing. GE has dropped a lot this year, and it's gotten the attention of many value investors. In fact, I purchased some GE shares not too long ago when they were trading about six bucks higher than the current price for what I hoped would be a short-term trade. I admit it, I was wrong.

I still think my reasoning at the time was correct, and I continue to hold those shares, but I also hold a long-term position of GE that I add to several times a year with the intent of holding for the next couple decades, maybe even beyond that. It is this position that received the shares acquired through the beneficence of the government. Although some might argue that I should have improved the cost basis of my trade, I decided against such action, since I think GE might be down for a while. If I wanted to use the money for a trade, there are probably better ideas out there for it than GE. But long-term, GE's current 4.7% yield will probably turn into an effective yield of better than 20%, assuming the dividend continues to rise in the future as it has in the past (I believe it will).

The only other stock that provided real competition for my stimulus windfall is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). However, the GE yield was just too beautiful. Granted, Coke is obviously the more focused business, and its brand equity is impeccable. But a near 3% yield is no match for a 4.7% yield. I think I made the right decision, but time will tell. No matter what, though, anyone who buys GE now better be patient. Short-term traders might not be rewarded.

Disclosure: I own Coke and GE; positions can change at any time.

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 16,000 to 404,000 for the week ended June 28, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

Claims for the previous week were revised 2,000 higher to 388,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 385,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,250 to 390,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said Thursday the jobless claims picture indicates economic conditions are worsening in the United States. "We're now above 400,000 in new claims. This is a sign the economy is stalling. Earlier, we did not see jobless claims as high as in previous slowdowns, but the job slide is accelerating, so in my view GDP will definitely be negative in Q2," Dawson said. "We've got to find a way to jump-start both jobs and demand or this economy will suffer a deeper recession."

The U.S. economy lost another 62,000 jobs in June, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday, as surging fuel prices forced companies in the world's largest economy to continue to cut expenses to protect profits in the face of the economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, the unemployment remained at 5.5% in June, the highest level since October 2004.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 50,000 jobs in June. Furthermore, June was the U.S. economy's sixth straight monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost a revised 62,000 jobs in May, up from the 49,000 earlier estimate; the U.S. economy lost 28,000 jobs in April.

The June job losses brought total job losses in 2008 to 438,000, the Labor Department said.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed persons was unchanged at 8.5 million in June. Since March 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 1.2 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.5% point.

With a slowing economy and corporate layoffs being announced daily, look for online education companies to benefit. Many unemployed are and will be looking for a profession, and many employed people are always looking to make career changes. Online education companies are therefore enjoying higher enrollment rates.

Shares in Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) are surging over 20% on a strong earnings report.

According to the AP: " Total degree enrollment rose 11 percent during the quarter to 345,300 students, versus a year ago. Apollo has boosted student retention with expanded academic programs, improved courses and other services." The company even managed to raise tuition by 4-10% depending on the program.

Pretty good business climate if you can both raise prices and increase enrollment. With a continuing weak economy, look for shares in online education to potentially be an interesting trade in a struggling economy.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/2/08.

Let's just say that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday closes down 200 points, we'll call it a moral victory. The Dow Wednesday closed down 166.75 points to 11,215.75.

"What was that famous Bette Davis line about a bumpy night? Well, Thursday could be a bumpy day," economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Wednesday.

Thursday could be very bumpy for the stock market because a series of data points -- all expected to be negative -- are converging at a traditionally difficult time of the year for the market - the start of summer.

Three data points of significance

First up is the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 7:45 a.m. EDT, at which the bank is expected to increase its key, short-term interest rate, the refinance rate, by a quarter-point to 4.25%. The ECB is trying to check inflation, Dawson said, but it may end up hurting the dollar. If the markets believe the already-weak dollar will fall further, that will increase commodity prices, including oil, "which will not be good news for stocks," he said.

Factory orders increased 0.6% in May, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday, on rising demand for computers and defense equipment. It was the third consecutive monthly rise in factory orders, the Commerce Department said. Excluding the often-volatile transportation component, factory orders increased 0.4%.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected May factory orders to increase by 0.6%. Factory orders increased a revised 1.3% in April.

Economists follow the factory orders statistic because it provides one of the most comprehensive surveys of advance orders for durable goods -- how busy factories are likely to be in the period ahead. Factory orders also are a major value-added component of the U.S. economy.

In May, new orders rose 1.2%, bookings increased 0.6%, shipments rose 0.1%, and unfilled orders increased 0.1%. Also, the inventories-to-shipments ratio was virtually unchanged in May at 1.23, compared to 1.22 in April.

Non-farm private employment decreased 79,000 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report. (pdf)

Meanwhile, the May estimated change in employment was revised down 15,000 to a gain of 25,000 jobs, ADP said.

In the June jobs report, employment in the service-providing sector fell 3,000, its first declined since November 2002. The goods-producing sector declined 76,000, and manufacturing employment fell 44,000, their 19th and 22nd consecutive monthly declines, respectively.

Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose just 7,000 during the month, while employment at large businesses with more than 500 workers declined 51,000. Jobs at medium sized business, with 50-499 employees, decreased 35,000.

Once upon a time, the minivan saved Chrysler. In 1984, the company introduced this new type of vehicle which went on to sell by the millions, helping Chrysler emerge from near bankruptcy.

But now Chrysler finds itself with too much production capacity for all kinds of large vehicles, including minivans. Today, the automaker announced that it will close one of its two minivan plants. The St. Louis South plant in Fenton, Mo., will close within the next four months; approximately 2,400 workers will lose their jobs. Minivan production will continue in Windsor, Ontario. Chrysler also announced that it will also produce fewer units of its 2009 Dodge Ram pickup truck. Only one shift will run at the St. Louis North plant, instead of the previously planned two shifts.

This news comes as news reports indicate that June auto sales plunged in the U.S. Consumers has deserted trucks and SUVs as gas prices soar past $4 a gallon. Chrysler famously produces a higher percentage of trucks in its lineup, and is suffering accordingly. Edmunds.com is estimating that Chrysler's sales could be down 30% in June. Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm that owns Chrysler, continues to say that it is happy with its acquisition of the company. But with results like this, it's hard to see how that could possibly be true.

If you believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a leading indicator of economic conditions six to nine months ahead, Tuesday's Dow activity is not good news.

The Dow officially entered bear market territory when a Tuesday morning decline drove the world's most followed stock market average beyond the level indicating a bear market -- down 20% from the October 9, 2007 high of 14,165.

What exactly is a 'bear market'?

Technical analysts, economists, and others argue that a 10% decline -- called a correction -- is a normal pull-back or pause in a bull market, a market where most stocks are likely to rise.

However, a 20% or greater decline is not healthy. Technical analysts say it indicates investors and traders are not simply taking short-term profits, but are concerned about the prospect for stocks in the quarters ahead -- three to nine months out -- and are exiting the market, in favor (historically) of bonds and cash.

For the above reason, 20% declines are usually interpreted by market advisors and participants as a sign that stocks are likely to be under pressure in the months ahead.

If pretty much every other attorney general in the country was suing Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), would Florida's? Apparently. Last night the Associated Press reported that Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has sued the company for misleading and unfair trade practices.

There's no question that Countrywide is a horrible company on a multitude of levels, but there's some irony to the allegations that the company took advantage of borrowers. Take a look at the chart for the company's stock price over the past 5 years -- how much worse would it have done if they'd treated people ethically? It's a little bit like finding out that career minor leaguer Manny Alexander was a steroid user.

In some ways the beat down on Countrywide seems unfair, more of a response to general market problems than anything else. Countrywide helped people use toxic mortgages to buy homes they couldn't afford at a time when lenders were operating on the assumption that home values always went up, interest rates never did, and everything was comin' up roses. It was a happy conspiracy and, sure, Countrywide was happily working on loans that were fraudulent -- but everyone knew the subprime game was the wild west and no one cared. Towns benefited from increased property taxes and federal loan programs encouraged home buying with little money down. But with a lot of people angry about losing their homes, these lawsuits are good politics in an election year.

Warren Buffett has been pretty vocal about how bad the current downturn will be. The same holds true for billionaire money manager George Soros. He has even testified before Congress to make his concerns known.

Now, Eli Broad, one of the richest men in America, or anywhere else for that matter, says this is the worst economic period of his lifetime. Broad will be 80 soon.

Broad told Bloomberg,``This is worse than any recession we've had since World War II." He does not think the housing market will recover for years and sees a sharp rise in unemployment.

The "billionaire boys clubs" now seems to have formed a consensus, and almost all of it is based on the problems in the housing market. It home sales keep dropping, most of the equity people in the US have built over the last twenty years goes away. If some of these people lose jobs, defaults rise and the matter becomes worse.

You can bet against the very rich, but it is probably not a good idea. They did not become fabulously wealthy by being stupid.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

If an enemy sworn to the destruction of the global economy was given free reign, it would follow the strategies of its current leaders.

One key to destroying an economy is to break its pricing mechanism. What does an effectively functioning pricing system do? It creates a market of buyers and sellers who can meet, agree on a price, conduct the transaction, and create an information trail that permits future market participants to judge what might be a fair price for their transactions.

Another key to destroying an economy is to put too low a price on risky behavior. Why is it important to price risk accurately? Because if decision-makers do not assess the risk at the time of their decision, the economy will end up paying for the under-priced risk long after those decision-makers have left office.

So how have current leaders broken the pricing mechanism and under-priced risk? Here are three ways:

If you're hearing whispers that the dollar might be creeping up in value and that this might put downward pressure on commodities, then let me tell you: Don't you believe it. Although some upward adjustment might occur for the dollar, it's my opinion that this won't, by itself, reduce commodity prices. To think so is just too limited an economic scope.

First, we can believe that the platform of oil prices is going to hold solid. I do think that the price of oil will eventually recede, but it's not going to be soon and it's not going to be much. It'll be a couple years before we see any real decline, if we ever do. That reality gives us a good launching point for some speculation. Alternative fueling for motor vehicles will keep upward pressure on oils other than petroleum. Consider commodity soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil as possible hedges. There's also potential in propane, and to me, natural gas is still artificially under valued. You might not think there's a relationship between these commodities and petroleum. Believe me though, there is. Also, like the high volume traded commodities, other vegetable oils, such as sunflower oil and cottonseed oil, are worth looking into.