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Lehman Brothers reiterated its "underweight" rating on Circuit City (NYSE:CC) ahead of the company's annual meeting, according to the AP.

Credit Suisse started Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) and Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) as "underperform," according to Briefing.com.

Thomas Weisel downgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) to "underweight" from "market weight," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that UBS upped its price target on Potash (NYSE:POT) from $250 to $285.

When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeek suggests some big names to invest in that could offer us the advantages we are looking for.

One such company is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), which could also benefit from higher ethanol prices, after purchasing seven businesses in 2007. Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is also amid possible winners, having forecast better-than-expected fertilizer earnings. Shell eggs producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) is also on the selected list; the company saw its shares climb 15% year to date, and has just revealed a new dividend payout policy.

Another important name is Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), whose stock prices have surged 70% so far this year. BusinessWeek cites Mosaic as being able to benefit from higher prices for fertilizer and potash. Following the same logic, the article points out potash provider Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) and fertilizer distributor CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), which should be able to take advantage of the weak dollar and higher sales prices.

Farm Stocks: Pick of the Crop
Millions of acres of farmland may be under water, but some agricultural outfits stand to benefit as higher prices lead to demand for seeds, equipment, and fertilizer. They include Archer Daniels Midland, Mosiac, Potash Corp., Agriam, Monsanto and John Deere.
Ag Stocks: Farm Favorites

Millions More Could Get a Rebate If They File a Return
Even as the IRS has sent out nearly 77 million tax rebates, more than 5 million retirees and disabled veterans who may qualify for a rebate haven't received one because they haven't filed a tax return.
Millions more could get a rebate if they file a return - USATODAY.com

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a leading producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, in North and South America. The firm's plants can produce more than eight million tons of fertilizers per year. These are sold to wholesale distributors and through more than four hundred company retail outlets. Agrium also participates in a joint venture with Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP), operating Argentina's largest nitrogen plant. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it raised its Q2 EPS guidance from $1.92-$2.22 to $2.80-$3.00. The Street had been expecting $2.50. Management attributed the positive outlook to strong global crop prices and the resulting solid performances by both its retail and wholesale operations. BMO Capital Markets subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $125.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the market's a mess, but the S&P oscillator and buyout offers could give an opportunity for trades.

Here we are again. Another unfathomable moment to buy stocks.

You have the financials just falling apart at the seams.

Oil and the grains are out of control.

The Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary have declared the worst is over even as we await the demise of a half-dozen banks, and we question the solvency of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The only stocks working are Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and a handful of natural gas companies.

It's crazy out there.

And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.

The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.

Things can change rapidly, but as of right now food related stocks like Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), the largest company involved with soy based products, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the largest fertilizer company, are up.

In the exploration sector, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), the oil, gas and exploration company, Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR), which is the majority shareholder in Diamond Offshore Drilling and is separating from its tobacco interests, and Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian contract driller that is expanding into the lower 48 states, are all up.

All five stocks have out performed the market this year and that trend does not seem to be in jeopardy yet.

I will update this post with final results after the market close to see how the story ends.

UPDATE: four of the five closed in positive territory when all the major indices were in the red.

• APC finished down to $77.69, -0.54 (-0.69%)
• BG finished up to $122.40, +0.47 (+0.39%)
• LTR finished up to $48.95, +0.45 (+0.93%)
• PDS finished up to $26.95, +0.49 (+1.85%)
• POT finished up to $223.10 +2.54 (+1.15%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC and PDS.

CF Industries (NYSE: CF) shares are trading higher today as bio-fuel related agricultural futures, including corn and soybeans are soaring, which is pushing the fertilizer stocks higher. An analyst at Goldman Sachs also raised his price target on competitor Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT). If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CF.

After hitting a one-year low of $44.16 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $159.00 in April. CF opened this morning at $149.99. So far today the stock has hit a low of $149.99 and a high of $154.52. As of 12:45, CF is trading at $154.37, up $7.70 (5.3%). The chart for CF looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $115 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 5.3% return in just six weeks as long as CF is above $115 at July expiration. CF would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money.

CF hasn't been below $115 since early April and has shown support around $122 recently. This trade could be risky if the prices for oil fall and agricultural futures follow in the coming weeks, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find just above $120, where it bottomed out in May.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CF.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bob Evans Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: BOBE) posted stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings.
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) beat earnings expectations, but share prices slipped anyway.
• Daktronics Inc. (NASDAQ: DAKT) Q4 results beat expectations and it raised its revenue outlook.
• Diageo (NYSE: DEO) is recession-proof and should deliver solid results, predicts one adviser.
• Donaldson Company Inc. (NYSE: DCI) beat Q3 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Ensco International Inc. (NYSE: ESV) was upgraded because of its earnings growth potential.
• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) earnings prospects don't impress Jim Cramer.
• Netezza Corp. (NYSE: NZ) beat Q1 expectations and offered full-year revenue guidance.
• Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) earnings are "set to soar" says one analyst, due to rising demand and prices.
• Sherwin-Williams Co. (NYSE: SHW) lowered its Q2 and full-year forecasts, sending shares down.
• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) beat Q2 estimates on Grand Theft Auto IV demand.
• Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) beat Q1 estimates but shares fell on the disappointing Q2 outlook.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was upgraded due to its earnings outlook and increased productivity.

See also: Earnings highlights: Toll Bros., National Semiconductor, Dr Pepper, Guess and others

Also, continued real estate losses are expected to hurt the quarterly reports of banks such as like Wachovia (NYSE: WB), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and National City (NYSE: NCC). And Steven Mallas wonders why Playboy (NYSE: PLA) shares have tanked since its last earnings report.

Upcoming results to watch for include Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD), Pall Corp. (NYSE: PLL), Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY), Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY), and Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

"Potash (NYSE: POT) scored a technical breakout by rising above $210," says technical expert Leo Fasciocco. In his Ticker Tape Digest, he says, "With earnings set to soar the stock now targets a move to $265."

"Postash, based in Canada, produces fertilizer. It produces phosphate and nitrogen from 12 facilities in the United States and South America. Fertilizer stocks have been strong due to rising profits reflecting strong demand for their products and rising prices.

"A long term chart shows an extraordinary bull market advance with the rising 170% the past 12 months versus an 8% decline in the S&P 500 index. Now, the stock has broken out from a seven-week flat base. The move carries POT to a new high on expanding volume.

In a challenging market amid an uncertain U.S. economic landscape, identifying long-term, promising investment opportunities becomes a difficult task. Further, to make the investment equation even more challenging, there's election risk, as well, with the 2008 U.S. Presidential election five months away.

Still, risk-adjusted investment opportunities exist. Accordingly, here's a 'Fab Five' that should rank with the best the equity markets have to offer, 3-5 years out.

(Note: Don't buy these stocks if you're interested in a short-term trade of six months or less. These are longer-term investments where the goal is a double-digit, average, annual, total return on equity over 3-5 years.)

Potash (NYSE: POT). Current Price: $212, p/e 47. Revised Stop Loss: $170. Potash remains the best of a very good fertilizer bunch, due to its 20% global market share in the namesake fertilizer. Consider buying POT on a pull-back to $202-203, but keep in mind Potash may not retreat to that level.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). Current Price: $132, p/e 40. Revised Stop Loss: $97. Mosaic also is well-positioned in phosphate and crop nutrients. Further, the fact that 66% of its revenue is internationally based is especially appealing, given the U.S. economic slowdown.

Transocean (NYSE: RIG). Current Price: $144, p/e 10. Revised Stop Loss: $110. RIG offers deepwater oil drilling services in all regions of the world, and it's an oil-thirsty world.

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX). Current Price: $114, p/e 14. Revised Stop Loss: $69. Copper / gold / molybdenum miner Freeport is one of a handful of companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century, and it boasts impressive clients, to boot. Consider buying FCX on a pull-back to $111-113, but keep in mind Freeport may not retreat to that level.

CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX). Current Price: $66, p/e 23. Revised Stop Loss: $48. Ride the railroad resurgence with this superior trade / commodity / freight transport company. The rails are in the transportation sweet spot: truck transport costs are rising with fuel costs, and the U.S. highway system is inadequate, with increased congestion likely, pending future investment.

Top Pick: Potash.

Safest Pick: CSX Corp.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

I have not decided who I am voting for yet. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say I have decided on multiple occasions only to become undecided again. While some will see me as fickle, or worse, others may be in the same boat.

I am also continuing to think about what difference any of the candidates can make on the economy, and based on these musings, where to invest. My current belief is that none of them will have a profound impact on our economy.

There are no financial wizards among them. Here is the shocker though: I like all three candidates, or at least can find some good in each of them. Each of them is a fighter, and I believe each one of them brings certain skill sets to the job. There are also things about each candidate that are inescapably negative. Clinton has so much baggage, Zsa Zsa Gabor would be jealous. Obama does not have the experience and he has a degree of arrogance (right sweetie); McCain is an old stick-in-the-mud who, as a long-time senator, has spent more hours with lobbyists than almost anybody, though he is pretending otherwise.

Where does this leave me from an investment perspective? My first choice, for stability with moderate growth and dividends, remains the defense sector. I wrote Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year a while back and I still think that it is the most secure. Here's why:

A) None of the candidates will want to appear soft on defense when we are at war, and all three have made threatening remarks in some country's direction to make sure the electorate knows that.

B) The War in Afghanistan and Iraq rages on, and even the most optimist view is that a draw-down will take years.

C) Even if all war ceased immediately, the upgrading and replenishment of the hardware will cost billions of dollars and most of the defense contractors have that in their backlogs now. Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon -- The defense does not rest

Farmers are paying more for supplies to grow their crops and they're passing those rising costs onto consumers. The Wall Street Journal reports that farmers paid 65% more for fertilizer in April 2008. Fuel, the second-fastest rising cost, is up 43%. And seed prices have risen 30%. But you can hedge your rising food costs by investing in companies that profit from rising fertilizer prices.

Farmers say too much market power is concentrated in the hands of a small group of companies in the U.S., Canada and Russia that dominate global production of potash and phosphate. Phosphate is up 174% from $365 last year to $1,000 a ton. The price of a ton of potash is up 204% from $230 to $700. Thanks to a rise in natural gas prices, the price of Urea, a nitrogen fertilizer, has doubled to $600 a ton.

Should you hedge your rising food prices by buying stock in Potash and seed suppliers? Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic Corp. (NYSE: MOS) have benefited from the rising price of Potash. And Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is the biggest seed company out there. They have benefited in the past year -- with stock prices up 202%, 279%, and 103% respectively. But will they keep rising?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.

Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.

Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.

Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.

Or how about all of the companies involved with process and flow control and efficient motors: Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take), Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) (Cramer's Take). Those work higher with higher energy prices. CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take), Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) (Cramer's Take), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take) are smaller energy users than trucks, and they ship plenty of ethanol and fertilizer.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intevac, PrivateBancorp and Potash were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Intevac (NASDAQ: IVAC) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Piper downgraded Intevac citing delays in Gen2 upgrades following Q1 results.
  
• Sandler downgraded PrivateBancorp (NASDAQ: PVTB) following its Q1 earnings results.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded Potash (NYSE: POT), and advised taking some profits.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Soleil downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) based on weak East Coast refining margins and low marketing and chemical margins.
  
• Calyon downgraded UAL (NASDAQ: UAUA) based on higher fuel costs and the failed merger with Continental (NYSE: CAL).

Readers of this space know that the preferred tack is to look for well-capitalized companies with competitive advantages in sectors with secular, long-term growth trends. One select sector has been oil/oil services, and another right near the top has been fertilizer producers, primarily Potash, Mosaic, and Agrium, first reviewed in December 2007-January 2008.

To be sure, the sector has been bid-up, as a wider community discovers the value of fertilizer and companion products amid the likely substantial increase in global food demand in the decade ahead.

Too late to get in on a fertilizer play? Hardly. P/Es are higher, so entry point is key, but with the above in mind, here's a revised review of the fertilizer producers, with the updated Sell/Stop Loss levels. They're ranked by risk, with the top stock, POT, being the lowest risk.