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As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.

As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."

Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.

Back in August of 1979, BusinessWeek ran a cover story proclaiming The Death of Equities, suggesting that the stock market was dead, and only a fool or old, out-of-touch person would invest there.

Needless to say, that article could not have been more wrong, and the bull market that began three years later was the longest in history.

Now, the good folks at BusinessWeek are back nearly 30 years later to declare that "the treat of a free fall is growing" for the housing market. There are some similarities. Like stocks in 1979, real estate has been a poor performer of late and it's hard to find anyone, except realtors of course, who is bullish.

But the question is whether sentiment has shifted too far to the negative side, versus the optimist of a few years ago. As Benjamin Graham wrote, the secret to successful investing is to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy."

The BusinessWeek article is well-researched and has some valid points. But to the contrarian, it's hard to think of a better buy signal based on BusinessWeek's less than stellar track record with Chicken Little headlines.

June 30 was the day when Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE: TMA) had hoped to complete at least 90% of its preferred stock repurchase as part of a last ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy and return it to viability. CEO Larry Goldstone continues to state that bankruptcy is not an option.

Well, when the stock has lost 99% of its value, the company posted a $3 billion quarterly loss, no one will buy what you have to sell, shareholders who have lost just about everything don't want to play anymore, and Moody's handed the company a C (for crap) rating.

Bankruptcy looks like a realistic scenario. And just to keep things interesting, the SEC is investigating the company's 2007 financial results, the timing of margin calls, as well as accounting practices for the company's mortgage-backed securities.

Thornburg's problems have nothing to do with the sub-prime mortgage debacle, at least not directly. Thornburg specializes in jumbo mortgages to those with impeccable credit. Its default rate is the envy of the mortgage industry. So the problem is not creditworthiness, but liquidity. Investors simply are not interested in purchasing mortgage-backed securities of whatever quality in the secondary market.

Thornburg's latest last ditch effort calls for the company to purchase 90% of its preferred stock in exchange for $5 and 3.5 shares of common stock for each share of preferred stock. Shareholders recently gave the company permission to increase the number of shares outstanding from 500 million to four billion in order to make the tender offer possible. The deadline for tendering preferred shares has been extended to September 30. The stock is currently trading at $0.22 per share, way down from its 52 week high of $27.82.

Even a contrarian speculator will have to work very hard to find value in this one.

In the first half of 2008, the S&P 500 fell 12%. June's stock market was the worst since 1930. So are stocks now a screaming buy or are they poised to plunge further? Nobody knows. But my guess is that stocks will move based on how well they perform compared with expectations. And the risk of negative surprises in most industries exceeds the chance of positive ones. So stocks will probably keep falling.

Here's a quick review of six negatives:

• Oil prices. With oil at $142, up 492% since January 2001, consumers are paying about $4.10 a gallon for gas and companies that use oil are getting squeezed while trying to raise prices. An attack on Iran, a big oil supplier, looms on the horizon. This and other geopolitical uncertainties could put further pressure on oil.
• Housing. Three million people are expected to face foreclosure on their homes. And prices have dropped 15%. Since people were using home equity to finance their purchasing, their negative equity is sucking the wind out of the economy.

Non-farm private employment decreased 79,000 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report. (pdf)

Meanwhile, the May estimated change in employment was revised down 15,000 to a gain of 25,000 jobs, ADP said.

In the June jobs report, employment in the service-providing sector fell 3,000, its first declined since November 2002. The goods-producing sector declined 76,000, and manufacturing employment fell 44,000, their 19th and 22nd consecutive monthly declines, respectively.

Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose just 7,000 during the month, while employment at large businesses with more than 500 workers declined 51,000. Jobs at medium sized business, with 50-499 employees, decreased 35,000.

In a rare indication that there may be some reasonably intelligent executives running things at America's top banks, Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) has decided that it will stop offering a mortgage that allows customers to pay less each month than the bank charges in interest.

Hold on. What? The "Pick-a-Payment" mortgages allowed borrowers to choose one of four payment options each month -- as in, "Do you want to pay off your mortgage or do you want to buy a new television and every season of Golden Girls on DVD?"

You can probably guess which option many people chose. The problem was that paying less than the interest each month led to negative amortization -- owing progressively more on the house each month. Recently it's been discovered that home values are not contractually obligated to go up every year and the result is that many people could end up owing more than the home is worth, trapping them in it -- and leaving the bank with a hefty loss in the event of foreclosure.

Wachovia has hired Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to evaluate its loan portfolio and suggest alternatives. I wonder how much they're paying. I could have told them that letting borrowers decide whether they want to pay the interest on their mortgages was a bad idea.

You think that only U.S. citizens have been hit hard by a lousy real estate market? New data released by the Nationwide Building Society in the UK, points to similar housing problems for our friends across the pond.

According to a report on Bloomberg: "Real-estate stocks had their worst performance in more than 20 years in the second quarter and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King predicts 'extremely weak activity' in the housing market. Mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in at least nine years in May and consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level in 18 years last month, reports showed yesterday."

While many predict that the US housing market will only start recovering in another year or two, I think that in the UK, you can double that amount of time. During the bull housing run, prices in the UK just skyrocketed, and what goes up tends to come back down. Also, it's important to keep in mind that the US has already been in the midst of the slump for a few years already and we are much closer to the end of this negative cycle than many international housing markets, as they just recently entered the downturn.

Investors thinking of buying beaten up UK housing real estate, should be very careful, as it's possible that there could be further price drops.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/1/08.

If pretty much every other attorney general in the country was suing Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), would Florida's? Apparently. Last night the Associated Press reported that Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has sued the company for misleading and unfair trade practices.

There's no question that Countrywide is a horrible company on a multitude of levels, but there's some irony to the allegations that the company took advantage of borrowers. Take a look at the chart for the company's stock price over the past 5 years -- how much worse would it have done if they'd treated people ethically? It's a little bit like finding out that career minor leaguer Manny Alexander was a steroid user.

In some ways the beat down on Countrywide seems unfair, more of a response to general market problems than anything else. Countrywide helped people use toxic mortgages to buy homes they couldn't afford at a time when lenders were operating on the assumption that home values always went up, interest rates never did, and everything was comin' up roses. It was a happy conspiracy and, sure, Countrywide was happily working on loans that were fraudulent -- but everyone knew the subprime game was the wild west and no one cared. Towns benefited from increased property taxes and federal loan programs encouraged home buying with little money down. But with a lot of people angry about losing their homes, these lawsuits are good politics in an election year.

Warren Buffett has been pretty vocal about how bad the current downturn will be. The same holds true for billionaire money manager George Soros. He has even testified before Congress to make his concerns known.

Now, Eli Broad, one of the richest men in America, or anywhere else for that matter, says this is the worst economic period of his lifetime. Broad will be 80 soon.

Broad told Bloomberg,``This is worse than any recession we've had since World War II." He does not think the housing market will recover for years and sees a sharp rise in unemployment.

The "billionaire boys clubs" now seems to have formed a consensus, and almost all of it is based on the problems in the housing market. It home sales keep dropping, most of the equity people in the US have built over the last twenty years goes away. If some of these people lose jobs, defaults rise and the matter becomes worse.

You can bet against the very rich, but it is probably not a good idea. They did not become fabulously wealthy by being stupid.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

If an enemy sworn to the destruction of the global economy was given free reign, it would follow the strategies of its current leaders.

One key to destroying an economy is to break its pricing mechanism. What does an effectively functioning pricing system do? It creates a market of buyers and sellers who can meet, agree on a price, conduct the transaction, and create an information trail that permits future market participants to judge what might be a fair price for their transactions.

Another key to destroying an economy is to put too low a price on risky behavior. Why is it important to price risk accurately? Because if decision-makers do not assess the risk at the time of their decision, the economy will end up paying for the under-priced risk long after those decision-makers have left office.

So how have current leaders broken the pricing mechanism and under-priced risk? Here are three ways:

Over the next few years, the market will be inundated with books purporting to explain the shady and incompetent practices that characterized the subprime lending market. With Confessions of a Subprime Lender: An Insider's Tale of Greed, Fraud, and Ignorance, Richard Bitner, the founder and former president of a subprime lender, is among the first to reach bookstores. The results are about what you'd expect: something that is not well-written, halfheartedly researched, and a pretty good introduction to an industry that is such a big part of the financial news right now. A good indication of how quickly this book was put together: there's no index!

My first complaint: the title is misleading. While Bitner does provide an insider's view, hardly anything in here is confessional. Bitner portrays himself as an ethical guy -- I have no reason to believe he wasn't -- and recounts some of his dealings with less ethical mortgage brokers and the like. He also provides an overview on the conflicts of interest that resulted in failures at every level of the industry: mortgage brokers, lenders, investment banks, rating agencies, appraisers, borrowers, and more.

Confessions of a Subprime Lender isn't great. It isn't even good really. But there are so few places to go for a broad overview of the industry that it's worth a look if you're hoping to understand the era. For some insightful commentary on the current mess, check out the author's blog at lendingsanity.com.

If one scrolls back into American history, one can detect a clear pattern of cycles or eras: periods of considerable economic expansion, followed by periods of less economic expansion. Periods of extensive public policy activity, followed by periods of less public policy activity. Periods of extensive suburban sprawl, followed by periods of less development.

As more and more Americans entertain the possibility that $4 per gallon gasoline, may, in the long-term, represent a price floor rather than a ceiling, one can detect the rumbles of a shift in housing preferences, so says economist Glen Langan.

"The 3-bedroom house with a back yard is still a goal. That's part of the American dream. The house with a yard 30 or 40 miles from work, is not," Langan said.

Case in point: the Denver metropolitan area. Suburban and exurban home prices in formerly preferred suburbs, are dropping more than in areas closer to the city center, The New York Times reported.

Denver will hardly be the only city affected, Langan said. "Many cities that experienced a 'long-commute' boom or an exurbia boom during the low gas price area are vulnerable," Langan said. "It's the 30-mile commute re-think." Another example of a city likely to be hit hard is Atlanta.

On Thursday, home builder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) said that its fiscal second-quarter loss narrowed, as Wall Street had expected. KB Home (NYSE: KBH), on the other hand, reported Friday a larger-than-expected second-quarter loss due to weak sales and falling home prices, as well as write downs.

For the quarter ended May 31, Los Angeles-based KB Home reported a loss of $255.9 million, or $3.30 per share, compared to a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 per share, in the same period of the previous year. This includes a charge of $176.5 million against unsold homes and to abandon some land option contracts.

Revenue tumbled 55% to $639.1 million, driven by lower housing and land sales. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a loss of 94 cents per share on revenue of $691.3 million.

As of May 31, KB Home's backlog of homes yet to be delivered was 6,233 units, down 54% percent from the same quarter last year. Unit deliveries, meanwhile, fell 41% to 2,810 as the company attempted to scale back its inventory of homes on the market.

KB Home said its cancellation rate was 27%, down from 34% in the year-ago period and 53% in the first quarter, but new orders during the quarter fell 42% from a year ago to 4,200.

It's heartbreaking to hear about the increasing numbers of homeless people as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing foreclosures. It's even more distressing to read that 2 million children will be affected as a result.

Many who join the ranks of the homeless are actually middle-class families. Many are renters of homes that were foreclosed. Practically all of them never expected to be in this situation. According to a study released in April by the National Coalition for the Homeless, "76% of displaced homeowners and renters are moving in with relatives and friends. About 54% are moving to emergency shelters. About 40% are already on the streets."

Well, I find this whole situation infuriating for several reasons. One is personal responsibility. I can't help but wonder how a middle-class family with two earners does not save enough for a rainy day. And if you can't manage that, what were you doing buying a 3,000-square foot house in the first place?

Another reason this is all so infuriating is lack of proper laws to protect tenants of foreclosed homes. What are renters to do if they're not even notified in time to arrange their affairs? What are they to do if they lose their deposits? What are they to do if the new owner doesn't assume the rental responsibilities? More protection is required in such situations.

Then there is good old plain greed and callousness. Somehow, they always seem to go hand in hand. The housing market is oversupplied, we hear. There is a great deal of inventory standing empty. Many foreclosed homes stand empty. So it wasn't enough that lenders, with their greed, brought the country to this mess, now they can't even see a way to redeem themselves. It's true, they're not in the business of renting homes out, but if there are empty homes, and there are homeless people, then perhaps they should. Or at least find a way to get those empty homes filled out.

Knowing them, they'll likely to still manage exploit the public even in this while making a buck or two for themselves, then why not do something good for a change?

On Thursday, Omaha-based ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) reported profit growth in the fourth quarter due in part to contributions from its commodity trading unit, which the company just sold. Also, homebuilder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) said its fiscal second-quarter loss narrowed, despite writedowns and a hefty drop in revenues.

ConAgra said earnings grew almost 5% from the year-ago period to $201 million, or 41 cents per share, including 23 cents per share from discontinued operations. The company also said revenue rose 15% to $3.08 billion.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected earnings for the quarter ended May 25 to be 34 cents per share on revenue of $3.4 billion.

ConAgra guided earnings to between 26 cents and 28 cents per share in the first quarter, and $1.56 and $1.59 per share for fiscal 2009. Analysts are predicting earnings per share of 33 cents per share in the first quarter, as well as $1.60 for the year.

ConAgra shares fell $1.23, or 5.6%, to $20.92 in trading Thursday. Shares have fallen 4.0% in the past three months.