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The headline in The New York Times reads "American Energy Policy, Asleep At the Spigot." The rise in old prices could have been prevented to some extent. The question is who is at fault. Describing how out of control crude consumption is in the U.S., the paper writes, "Home to only 4 percent of the world's population, the nation slurps up about a quarter of the planet's oil -- and Americans' daily use is nearly twice the combined consumption of the Chinese and Indians."

Well said, and true. But, the actions described are terribly American and could not, under the current economic and government system, have been prevented.

Oil consumption is not unlike the use of cigarettes or liquor. The government can tell citizens that the behavior is dangerous. It can even raises taxes on the products to remarkable levels. But, it is not willing to legislate limited use of oil. It is not willing to create a "Prohibition" like Congress did when it tried to eliminate drinking. The attempt lasted from 1920 to 1933. Americans drank right through the 13 years.

No matter how bad the oil crisis is now, on the consumption side, the U.S. government is poorly equipped to change the behavior of its citizens unless there is a period of emergency. In WW II, people were willing to go along with restrictions in their use of certain goods and services, like rubber.

With gas over $4 and going higher, the present turmoil has the hallmarks of a grave danger. Perhaps it is time for Congress to pass an "Emergency Gas Act." Nothing short of that is going to change how fossil fuels are consumed.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

In an attempt to curb all the 'hot money' flowing into China, the Chinese government will start checking exporter's foreign exchange settlements. Government control of the exchange rate has what has created this problem in the first place. The way to curb this problem is for the Chinese to freely float their currency and let it appreciate to the level that the market thinks it should be trading it.

The government is desperate to cool the flow of money coming into to China as it's trying to fight surging inflation. According to an article in Bloomberg: " China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, surged 40 percent to a record $1.68 trillion in March from a year earlier, according to the latest official data. The excess cash flooding the financial system may stoke 12-year-high inflation in the fastest-growing major economy."

Most analysts are of the opinion that these checks are impractical and won't solve the problem. How many people will the government have to hire to wade through all these transactions? On the other hand maybe this is how China will solve the problem that they will have after the Olympics finish, and the government works projects come to an end. They can hire all of the unemployed and have them check all the transactions.

The real solution: Float the Yuan.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.

Japan's Nikkei Index, the weighted average of 225 stocks in major companies, fell for the 10th day. That has not happened since 1965.

According to the FT, "Rising fears about the impact of inflation on slowing economies took their toll on Japanese and other Asia-Pacific markets." That sounds a bit like the current trouble in the US.

A number of other indicies have had sharp declines lately. The Shanghai Composite has fallen by more than half since late last year. Rising energy and food costs in China have not helped it. Neither have concerns that a recession in the West could cut demand for its exports.

The Nikkei news says two things. The first is that the economies in other large nations may be as troubled as that in the US. Traders often look out several quarters when they make their buying or selling decisions. But, the second, more ominous sign from the Nikkei's decline is that it says that the smart money in Japan believes that the price of oil is not likely to fall. Japan is relies more on imports of crude that the US does.

The tough run for the Nikkei is not restricted to Japan. US and EU markets are likely to set records of their own, and not the kind that traders look forward to.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Many investors / traders are aware of the increasing demand for oil stemming form emerging markets economic growth. Vibrant, dynamic economies in China and India, but also in Australia and the Middle East, have been the biggest factor in oil's four-year bull market, which has brought oil prices to a record of over $140 per barrel.

Moreover, oil sector analysts, economists and executives are counting on continual, sizable oil production increases from non-OPEC nations to help contain oil prices in the quarters and years ahead, but now it appears there may be a problem related to that assumption.

Non-OPEC, OPEC output estimates lowered

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical unit, has lowered its estimate for non-OPEC production in 2010 by 1.1 million barrels per day to 51.8 million barrels per day, from last year's forecast of 52.9 million. At the same time, the EIA lowered its 2010 OPEC production forecast by 400,000 barrels to 37.4 million.

Further, the EIA now sees 2010 global oil demand at 89.2 million -- in other words a statistical balance between daily global oil supply and demand.

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the projected production reduction is not good news for consumers in either the developed or developing worlds.

Oil continued to remain strong with prices moving slightly higher this morning, ahead of today's weekly inventory report. The main reason for prices remaining strong continues to be worries over oil supplies.

Traders have pushed prices through the $142 mark this morning, with the precious crude trading as high as $142.45, but have cooled off a bit and are now sitting at $141.06, which is $0.09 higher on the day. As Douglas McIntyre discussed earlier, typically such high oil prices are expected to put a crimp in demand, but this time around that may not be the case at all. Already many analysts are stating that demand may not fall too much, even with the record high gasoline prices.

We should get a slightly clearer picture on just how true that is later today when the Department of Energy releases the weekly inventory numbers. Last week inventories increased, but that is expected to reverse this week, and analysts are predicting this week's oil inventory numbers to actually show a decline of around 1.2 million barrels (compared with a 800,000 barrel increase that was reported last week).

It is reasonable to believe that as the cost of crude rises, demand will fall. It is in the Economics 101 textbooks. It has to to be true.

Not so, says The International Energy Agency. According to The New York Times, the think tank says "the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America."

The argument has the benefit of making sense. Asia, especially China, cannot keep up its GDP growth without gas to drive its transportation industry. It has cut the amount it provides to underwrite the price of diesel and gas, but it has not eliminated the practice. Driving a car or truck on the mainland is still cheap.

In the Middle East and Latin America, many of the countries are net exporters of crude. Brazil recently claimed that it found one of the largest oil deposits ever discovered. The field are just off its coast in the ocean. Many of the nations with excess oil will keep some of that at home to build their own infrastructures.

Oil prices are staying high whether the US can afford that or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

China is the world's largest cellular phone market. Without it, Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) quest to grow iPhone sales quickly would be hindered.

Apparently, however, Apple is now getting close to a deal.

According to Reuters, "Apple is no longer insisting on a revenue-sharing policy, so the biggest hurdle for China Mobile to bring in the iPhone has been cleared, but there are practical issues still to be resolved," said China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) spokeswoman Rainie Lei. Apple will not get a piece of the subscription fees attached to the phone, but it will move into a position to sell millions of iPhones on the mainland.

The news is likely to push Apple's stock up. China sales could eventually equal all of Europe's sales combined and may, at some point, rival sales in the US.

Apple's biggest problem in China may be the price of the phone. The upper and middle classes there may well pay for an expensive smartphone. The less well-off are likely to stick to products that cost well below what would be $100 in the US.

But Apple does not need to sell iPhone to all 1.3 billion people in China. It would probably be happy if just half those people bought the new 3G product.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

For the first time ever, the number of millionaires in the world broke through the 10 million mark last year. All said and done, the total number of people who can claim to have $1 million in the bank grew to around 10.1 million people, and on average, these lucky few boast around $4 million in net worth.

While the number of people in the "millionaires club" is definitely impressive, they still do not have to worry about the clout of their $1 million claims being diluted just yet. Ten million people may sound like a lot, but when you consider the world's total population is currently running at around 6.7 billion, you find that the percentage of all people on the planet who can claim to have $1 million is less than 0.2%. So don't feel too bad if you are not part of the club just yet.

As in the past, the majority of millionaires have an American address, with one out of every three millionaires being American. But there are a few other areas of the world where growth is out-pacing the United States. Developing economies in India, China and Brazil resulted in huge growth in those countries, especially in India, where the number of millionaires rose by about 23% last year alone.

"I've long believed that China's currency is due to appreciate notably against the buck," says currency expert Jack Crooks, upon returning from speaking at a Forex seminar in Beijing.

In his World Currency Alert he explains, "Until now, there's been no straight-forward, highly-liquid way to play it. Now there is: the WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB)."

"I now think it makes sense to secure some exposure to the Chinese yuan. There's been a major U.S.-China dynamic that's drastically altered the global economic landscape over the last several years. It goes a little something like this:

• China sends goods to the U.S.
• The U.S. sends dollars to China.
• China sends dollars back to U.S.
• The U.S. sends treasuries to China.

"Ultimately, China supplies the globe with liquidity. Behind this capital flow is an artificially undervalued Chinese yuan. This exchange rate situation is why China has become a major supplier of goods and capital to the rest of the world.

That the developing and developed world will need considerably more electricity in the decades ahead would not surprise most investors / readers.

That both economic zones can achieve this goal while adding a minimal amount of soot to the atmosphere, however, would.

And the technology that will undoubtedly serve as a key energy-generation component in emerging markets' 21st century power grid? You guessed it: nuclear power -- the power generation form that has lagged in the United States for more than 20 years, due to environmental regulations.

China, India push forward with plant plans

China and India are two emerging market nations that recognize that nuclear power is an essential part of meeting future electricity demand. Nuclear power will account for more than 5% of China's power output by 2020, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Meanwhile, India will start three nuclear reactors this year.

Economist Glen Langan said that while nuclear power is not, strictly speaking, a renewable energy, it has to be considered as part of the next-generation energy mix [along with wind and solar power] to meet the U.S.'s growing demand for electricity.

"Mall of misfortune" -- The title of the article in The National says it all.

It seemed like such a good idea: China's economy is growing at a frantic pace, and people have more disposable income than ever. Why not build the world's largest mall in the Pearl River Delta -- China's wealthiest region -- generate a ton of hype, and make millions? "Build it and they will come," right?

Wrong. The seven-million square foot South China Mall is a flop of historical significance. Imagine combining New Coke, The Ford Edsel and O-Town's second album in a blender, and then building a mall out of it. The mall opened in 2005 with space for 1,500 stores and is currently home to around 12. That's a vacancy rate of 99.2%.

In a way, it's nice to see this thing flop: it turns that you actually can lose money overestimating peoples' appetite for conspicuous consumption -- at least in China. What's caused the mall's failure? A Bloomberg headline sums up one possibility: Many Savers, Few Spenders Leave South China Mall Almost Empty.



China has the highest savings rate of any country in the world (about 30% of household income) and people are electing to invest their expanding wealth rather than buy stupid stuff.

Meanwhile, our savings rate is negative, and people are struggling to come up with the money to fill up the Hummers they use to drive to work in cubicles. Something went badly wrong in the good old US of A, and our complaints about communism aside, we might do well to look to China to find out how to fix it.

Gallery: Signs of a global recession?

China decided to raise the prices of gas and diesel by 18% last week. The theory is that this will cut into demand and help drive down the global price of oil. It will also save China money. The central government underwrites that cost of fuel by buying crude at high prices and selling the refined products below market.

Keeping fuel costs low is part of what allows the GDP in China to keep growing quickly. The country needs to move goods from the interior of the country ,where they are made, to the port cities for shipping. China's export success has some base in a low cost of shipping.

The China plan might work in the U.S., although it would risk harming many of the lower and middle class. The federal government has the opportunity to raise the taxes on gas and diesel enough to move the price of a gallon of "regular" to over $6. That would certainly cut consumption.

Or, the government can do nothing because gas may get to $6 all on its own.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Food manufacturers promised Mexico's government on Wednesday they would freeze prices on more than 150 food products to help families cope with the rising cost of food, The Associated Press reported Thursday.

Mexico President Felipe Calderon said prices for goods including beans, canned tuna, fruit juices, coffee, ketchup and canned tomatoes will remain fixed until December 31, 2008, The AP reported. Calderon blamed rising food prices on surging global energy prices, food demand in China, and the use of corn for ethanol production.

Good intention, wrong method

Economist Glen Langan said he agreed with the need for food assistance for Mexico's poor, but disagreed with the mechanism.

"A more effective program would be a larger cash payment or food subsidy to citizens," Langan said. "The pricing mechanism should be kept in place, because it has many benefits. Cash payments or subsidies to poor residents are much more targeted and don't provide a benefit to those who don't need it. [Mexico President] Calderon did announce a monthly subsidy, 120 pesos [$11.60], but it isn't large enough."

In a policy shift, the Chinese government's National Development and Reform Commission announced it will increase domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 17-18% starting at midnight Thursday (China time), the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. (Subscription required.)

Oil fell $2.56 to $134.12 per barrel in Thursday mid-day trading on the news. Economists and oil industry analysts say surging demand for oil and oil products in China and India has been a major factor in oil's more than 400% price rise since 2000.

The other major energy commodities also fell substantially Thursday on the news. Heating oil plunged 8 cents to $3.77 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added plummeted 7 cents to $3.39 per gallon, and natural gas fell 28 cents to $12.93 per million BTUs.

Both China and India subsidize the price of fuels, and analysts are quick to point out that China's retail prices will still be below market prices.

Thursday's action has China's first oil product price increase since November 2007, The Journal reported. (Subscription required.)

Oil price surge 'forces China's hand'

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday oil's relentless rise "forced China's hand." China had sought to keep both diesel and gasoline prices, and other fuel commodities, well below market price levels to stimulate economic growth, he said, but the large subsidies required to do so in the face of +$130 per barrel oil required a policy adjustment "to close the gap."

"Long-term, China realizes that it can not continue to subsidize motor fuel or oil by large amounts without sustaining large losses, but short-term I think they're realizing now that maybe a higher price will encourage more-efficient use of fuel," Wang said. "Refiners were also caught in a bind because government price controls on motor fuel were forcing them to sell the refined product at a loss, so many refiners stopped producing it, which of course has led to shortages."

Markets in Asia were troubled by rising oil and concerns that the global economy is getting into more trouble as each week passes.

The Shanghai Composite fell 6.5% to 2,749.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 2.2% to 22,807. China Life (NYSE: LFC) dropped 3.1% to 28.3 yuan. China Petroluem (NYSE: SNP) fell 3% to 8.07.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei dropped 2.2% to 14,130. Mazda fell 5.5% to 568 yen. Toyota (NYSE: TM) dropped 3.2% to 5490 on concerns that its truck sales were falling in the US.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.