Readers of this space know that one argument I forward here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.
(Note: Petroleo's shares split 2-for-1 in May 2008.)
Analysts really like PBR's proved reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and astounding 5,870 gasoline stations. Further, analysts see 2008 production rising about 11-14%. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for PBR are $4.91/$5.03.
The risks? Analysts have their eye on PBR's operating costs. Also, PBR's concentration in Brazil means a downturn in that country's economy will hurt results.
Stock Analysis: Petroleo Brasileiro is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from PBR's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $78.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
For the first time ever, the number of millionaires in the world broke through the 10 million mark last year. All said and done, the total number of people who can claim to have $1 million in the bank grew to around 10.1 million people, and on average, these lucky few boast around $4 million in net worth.
While the number of people in the "millionaires club" is definitely impressive, they still do not have to worry about the clout of their $1 million claims being diluted just yet. Ten million people may sound like a lot, but when you consider the world's total population is currently running at around 6.7 billion, you find that the percentage of all people on the planet who can claim to have $1 million is less than 0.2%. So don't feel too bad if you are not part of the club just yet.
As in the past, the majority of millionaires have an American address, with one out of every three millionaires being American. But there are a few other areas of the world where growth is out-pacing the United States. Developing economies in India, China and Brazil resulted in huge growth in those countries, especially in India, where the number of millionaires rose by about 23% last year alone.
An interesting post written by Joseph Lazzaro on Tuesday indicated that many economists think that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRIC economies, will supplant the United States and European nations in terms of world power and economic strength. While this may be true to a degree, I have a message for those emerging economic powerhouses: they had better be careful.
Dear Brazil, you have resources you can't yet even contemplate. However, you have been whacking through your opportunities at a very rapid pace. You have no idea about what political powers you should align yourself with. Can you reign in your pirates, your poachers, your drug lords? Can you effectively protect even just one of your trees?
Dear Russia, you scare me. The world knows more of your organized crime than it knows of your present government. You move more capital through your black markets than through your own ports. You turn your backs on true enterprise in exchange for quick profit.
Perhaps no other economic phenomenon better characterizes this initial decade of the twenty-first century than the development of -- and GDP growth in -- the developing world.
The economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- often referred to as the BRIC economies -- are major reasons why the developing world will grow 6.7% in 2008, far outpacing growth rates in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
New York Times columnist Roger Cohen argues that what we're seeing is not just the development of markets, not just 'the world is flat,' to use the term popularized by his Times colleague Thomas Friedman, but a reversal: the world is upside down. In Cohen's interpretation, the new economic tigers' accomplishments are large, ongoing, and system changing. Moreover, a power shift is occurring from the U.S and Europe to the new engines of growth.
For Cohen, Brazil is the economic model of the age: abundant minerals and crops, investment capital pouring in, a sugarcane-based energy policy, rising personal incomes, and an increasingly prosperous middle class, with plenty of land to mine, to plant, to expand. It is, in many ways, much of what the United States is not in 2008.
Those businesses relying on feed commodities have certainly had to cope with a series of bullish sector trends in the past two years. Increasing demand for food in rapidly growing emerging market countries and the use of corn for ethanol have been the achieve price drivers.
Now, at least for the short-term, add weather concerns. Corn approached a record $8 per bushel Monday as the prospect of more rain on already-soaked Midwest farms increased the likelihood of extensive crop damage, Bloomberg News reported.
Soybeans, wheat, and rice also rose Monday at midday after the National Weather Service predicted that flooding in the Midwest will probably result in "hundreds of millions of dollars" in crop damages. Rice, a staple for about 50% of the world, rose 50 cents to $20.80 per 100 pounds. Soybeans traded up 19 cents to $15.79 per bushel.
Economist Glen Langan, whose specializations include agricultural economics, told BloggingStocks Monday the world needs a strong harvest, across the feed spectrum, from the United States and other nations. "A strong harvest would take some of the price momentum out of corn and wheat, in particular. Unfortunately, we may be headed for a sub-par harvest in the U.S. if current weather patterns persist," Langan said.
"Sugar-cane based ethanol has been refined for years in Brazil, at a significant cost advantage to other sources of ethanol. In fact, Brazilian ethanol is about 40% cheaper to make than in the U.S. - and costs less than half the price of European ethanol.
"It doesn't require deforestation or the destruction of natural resources to cultivate it. It can be processed and refined without expensive exploration and drilling. And, it produces 5 times the energy output of corn.
"Today, ethanol accounts for 50% of Brazil's total annual automotive fuel consumption, and more than 70% of all new cars sold in the country are flex-fuel capable, able to run either on gasoline, ethanol or some combination of the two.
"And Brazil's ethanol industry has plenty of room to grow for years to come - and plenty of customers demanding its low-cost cash crop. Germany alone uses about 450 million gallons of bio-diesel a year. An estimated 50% of Europe's cars and trucks can run on this bio-fuel.
"With Brazil at the hub of the alternative fuel revolution, Cosan SA Indústria & Comércio (NYSE: CZZ) is the king-of-ethanol. And, it's also the king-of-agriculture in Brazil too. That gives you double-play profit potential as Cosan earns a fortune from both higher sugar prices and booming ethanol demand.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development again cut its forecast for 2008 growth in its 30-nation membership -- this time to 1.8% from "less than 2%" -- saying that while the worst of the credit market stress is over, its impact on the global economy is not. [pdf] The OECD now sees 2009 GDP growth in the 30-nation region totaling 1.7%
Both yearly forecasts were weighed down by a lower GDP growth forecast for the U.S. economy, with the OECD now seeing the world's largest economy growing by a scant 1.2% in 2008 and 1.1% in 2009, down from earlier forecasts of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The United States economy is now confronting strong headwinds -- a housing slump, a credit squeeze and inflation, the latter of which is eroding workers' disposable income, the OECD said.
The OECD expects Europe's euro-zone region to grow 1.7% in 2008 and 1.4% in 2009. Japan's economy is expected to grow 1.7% and 1.5% during the same periods.
Emerging market boom seen continuing
Meanwhile, growth in most emerging market nations is expected to remain strong, led by China, India and what appears to be a new economic rising star, Brazil.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a 50% increase in global food production by 2030, saying that a failure to meet the world's expanding need for food will create civil unrest and starvation, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. Ban said food prices and production is tantamount to a global security issue, and will remain so for many years.
Prices for staples such as wheat, rice, and corn have increased more than 100% amid a global economic expansion. Part of the increased grain cost, particularly regarding corn (ethanol), can be attributed to the diversion of corn for energy production use. Most of the price increases for other staples, however, stems from the fact that -- for the first time in human history -- all regions of the world are embracing free markets and developing economically, at the same time.
Moreover, the U.N. said it expects large price increases to continue for at least the next several years, due to rising demand. The UN called even moderate 10-20% food price increases disruptive for poor households, which spend a disproportionate percentage of their income on food.
"The recent pullback in commodity prices has opened up this window of opportunity," says resources expert Larry Edelson who reaffirms his long-term bullishness on gold.
In his Real Wealth newsletter, he explains, "If you think the slowdown in the U.S. economy is impacting China and other emerging markets - ground zero for the natural resources boom - think again." Here, he discusses his favorite gold plays.
"Not only are the Chinese and Indian economies expected to surge more than 9% this year, countless other economies throughout Asia, the former Soviet states and Latin American countries are also growing by leaps and bounds.
"As long as this massive new demand continues, natural resources and commodities will continue to soar And investors who use temporary pull-backs in this long-term bull market stand to multiply their money - over and over again - for years to come.
"You must own some gold in this economic environment. Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom because it is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"Emerging markets can dangerous waters for U.S. investors. These markets often have little to no analyst coverage and can be highly inefficient.
"As such, this is an area where expert active management can be well worth the higher price tag. And despite charging 1.55% in annual expenses, the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund certainly falls into that category.
"Given the potential pitfalls, it's reassuring to know that this fund is overseen by Dr. Mark Mobius -- a battle-tested veteran with decades of experience dealing with these uncertain stocks.
"While most funds have no discretion when it comes to making tactical decisions, Mobius and his team have the flexibility to steer clear of troubled regions or sectors -- and overweight those that look particularly promising.
"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.
"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.
"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.
"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.
"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.
"Some 20,000 or more million-dollar block trades are made each day," says Peter Way in Block Traders ETF Monitor, which assesses the activity of these trades. Here's some current top "big block" bets.
"Since it's these big dollar pressures that move markets, we want to know what they are likely to do next. Our analysis determines what the pros' expectations are for the coming prices of stocks, from the way they protect investments they have or are making.
"Based on our proprietary analysis of this big block activity, we determine the prospects for each ETF sector to determine where prices will be in the next 3 months. We seek the best balance of upside risk and downside exposures.
"We don't want to buy anything that doesn't offer a net payoff of better than 5% over three months, or an annual rate of +22%. International and global ETFs. and emerging markets still hold appeal, with MSCI Brazil iShares (NYSE: EWZ), the best bet.
"The ETFs that have been providing the most reliable and productive gains of late have been in commodities. Without any leverage, there are currently a number that appear attractive, given the volume market-makers' appraisals. The PowerShares DB Agricultural Index ETF (ASE: DBA) outranks just about all of the 2,500 issues we cover. PowerShares DB Commodities Index ETF (ASE: DBC) also offers strong buy credentials."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
The price of crude moved to a record above $112 overnight. It seems that speculation, a weak dollar, and concern about demand just keep pushing oil higher.
Now, oil is part of a "good news/bad news" play. Evidence is coming out of Russia that oil production there has peaked. According to the FT, "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels." By many measures, Russia is the world's second largest oil producer.
That bad news may be offset by a huge oil discovery off the coast of Brazil. The country's state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro, said it had made a huge discovery off-shore. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, Haroldo Lima, said the strike could be one of the world's biggest oil discoveries in decades, containing as much as 33 billion barrels in oil equivalent."
The question now is whether one huge deposit can offset a decline in Russia and a fall-off in oil from other large producers like Mexico. For now, the answer is "no." That's because the Brazil discovery is in deep water. It could take several years to get it completely online. The decline in production in other countries is happening now.
The Brazil discovery brings hope, but no relief, at least no for now.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Validea is a fascinating newsletter that assesses stocks based on the known criteria of "legendary" stock investors, such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.
Here, editor John Reese reviews Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) -- a Spain-based telecom firm with operates in Europe and Latin America -- based on the strategy of quantitative analyst James O'Shaughnessy.
"James O'Shaughnessy has noted that 'disciplined implementation of active strategies is the key to performance.' He should know; his study of 44 years of stock market data is one of the most extensive ever of the market.
"The system he devised based on that research produced average back-tested returns of 22% per year for those 44 years. At times like these, it's more important than ever to heed his advice, and keep your emotions in check by focusing on fundamentals.
"Telefonica (NYSE: TEF), based in Madrid, Telefonica is involved in the communications, information, and entertainment arenas in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. The firm has a presence in more than 20 countries and more than 218 million customers.
"U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW) has been growing its revenue and earnings at an accelerated pace over the last few years, notes Horacio Marquez, adding "And that pace is about to pick up after a recent mild respite."
The contributing editor to The Money Map explains, "We expect very strong gains in this stock to come in short order." Here, he looks at the fund management firm.
"The reason is very simple. If you couple some of the best minds in emerging-market investments and commodity investments with a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative approach, you get consistently top-performing funds with eye-popping returns.
"Last year, four of the firm's equity funds, – representing more than 80% of the money under management – were among the top performers in the overall U.S. mutual fund universe, in the one- and 10-year time periods.
"And in the fund-management business, strong, consistent fund performance drives growth in assets under management. And since growth in assets under management drives fees, it is no surprise that this company has been able to achieve operating income growth rates of between 27% to 94% over the last 10 years.
"In fact, the company should see accelerating earnings growth in the second half, as the interest rates cuts favor higher commodity prices and emerging-market investments – areas in which U.S. Global's funds excel.